Distinguishing correlation from causation
CLEP American Government, Chapter 41
Distinguishing correlation from causation
Correlation means that two variables vary together. A positive association means higher values of one tend to accompany higher values of the other; a negative association means higher values accompany lower values. Direction is different from strength. Evidence display 41D plots counties, separates two regions, and marks an unusual county with a diamond. The main cloud trends upward, but the regional clusters occupy different levels and the outlier can pull a one-number summary away from the pattern followed by most counties.
The display supports description, not a causal arrow. Campaign history, industry, region, candidate strategy, or another factor could shape both variables. Candidate B's county vote share also does not reveal which residents supplied those ballots; that inference would require individual-level evidence.
A causal question asks what would have happened to the same units under a different condition.
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