10-Year Heart Disease Risk Calculator (Pooled Cohort Equations)
Estimate your 10-year risk of a first heart attack or stroke (ASCVD) with the ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations from age, sex, cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes and smoking. Example: a 55-year-old white man with cholesterol 213, HDL 50 and systolic 120 untreated, no diabetes, non-smoker has about a 5.4% risk.
Show steps
How to use the 10-Year Heart Disease Risk Calculator (Pooled Cohort Equations)
- Enter the values in the fields.
- Press Calculate to see the result with the steps shown.
Formula and method
10-year risk = 1 – S0^exp(sum of coefficient x ln(variable) – population mean), with separate coefficients and baseline survival S0 for white and African American men and women.
Risk categories (ACC/AHA)
| 10-year risk | Category | Typical approach |
|---|---|---|
| Below 5% | Low | Lifestyle |
| 5% to 7.4% | Borderline | Lifestyle; consider risk enhancers |
| 7.5% to 19.9% | Intermediate | Moderate-intensity statin if favorable after discussion |
| 20% or more | High | High-intensity statin generally recommended |
Example profiles (no treatment, non-smoker, no diabetes)
| Profile | TC / HDL / SBP | 10-year risk |
|---|---|---|
| White woman, 55 | 213 / 50 / 120 | 2.1% |
| White man, 55 | 213 / 50 / 120 | 5.3% |
| African American woman, 55 | 213 / 50 / 120 | 3.0% |
| African American man, 55 | 213 / 50 / 120 | 6.1% |
What raises your risk
Smoking, diabetes, high LDL and blood pressure, family history of early heart disease, chronic kidney disease, inflammatory conditions and, for women, preeclampsia or early menopause.
Limits
The model is validated for ages 40 to 79 and for people not already diagnosed with heart disease. This calculator is for education and is not medical advice. Decisions about testing and treatment belong with a qualified clinician.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Pooled Cohort Equations risk?
The ACC/AHA 10-year risk of heart attack or stroke.
What risk needs a statin?
Typically 7.5% or higher after discussion; 20% or more is high risk.
Does it apply to people with heart disease?
No, it is for primary prevention.
Can I lower my risk?
Yes: stop smoking, control blood pressure and cholesterol and stay active.
Why is race an input?
The original cohorts had separate fits for white and African American adults.
Is there a newer model?
The 2023 AHA PREVENT equations add kidney function; this tool uses the 2013 equations.
Sources
- Goff et al., 2013 ACC/AHA Guideline on the Assessment of Cardiovascular Risk
- American Heart Association: Cholesterol
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